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2017年3月
The 12bet官方 研究所’s analysis of Local Consumer Commerce showed a decline in spending growth throughout 2016 which was most prominent amongst older consumers. 当我们比较55岁及以上的消费者和35岁以下的消费者时, this decline was most stark in spending growth for restaurants and other services.
The economic decisions made by older consumers are increasingly important given the aging of the consumer base throughout the US. The US Census Bureau projects that more than 20 percent of the US population will be 65 or older by 2030, 高于2010年的13%.1 To better understand the economic and policy consequences of this demographic shift, the 研究所 explored the components of the decline in spending growth from older Americans.
关键的事实
- 55岁及以上消费者的支出增长有所下降.从2013年12月到2016年12月，增长了9个百分点.3
- 55岁及以上消费者的餐饮支出增长下降了8%.同期下降了8个百分点.
- Growth in spending on other services by consumers 55 and older also declined by 7.两个百分点.
该分析使用本地消费者商务(LCC)数据资产, which encompasses over 19 billion de-identified credit and debit card transactions from over 59 million consumers in 15 major metropolitan areas. LCC指数, 建立在LCC资产之上, captures year-over-year growth in everyday spending across a range of consumer and merchant groups. The transaction-level data in the LCC data asset are augmented by the zip codes of both the consumer and merchant, 提供本地, 基于地方的支出增长观点. Consequently, we can evaluate trends at both the city level and across the 15 cities we track.2
找到一个: 老年消费者是LCCI下降的最大驱动力
The share of total spending by older consumers is large enough that growth declines within this group can affect the overall growth rate (see Figure 13). In December 2016, consumers between the ages of 35 and 54 and consumers 55 and older made up 41.2%和38%.分别占LCC总支出的2%. 相比之下，35岁以下的消费者仅占20%.占同期低成本航空总支出的6%.
Older consumers generally have lower spending growth relative to their younger counterparts across all product types. 然而, to better understand which age groups have driven the overall decline in spending growth, 我们关注的是增长率之间的差距. 随着时间的推移，这种差距在大多数产品类型中相当稳定, spending growth on restaurants (17 percent of total LCC spending) and other services (15.占低成本航空公司总开支的7%)的差距正在扩大.
发现二: 老年消费者的餐饮消费增速下降最快
2014年3月，35岁以下消费者在餐厅的支出增长了8%.6 percentage points higher than restaurant spending growth for consumers 55 and older. 到2016年12月，这一差距扩大到13.8个百分点. 令人惊讶的是, this slowdown in dining out was not accompanied by an increase in spending at grocery stores. 餐馆消费增长从正的5%下降.从2014年3月的0%降至3%.3 percent decline in December 2016, while spending growth at grocers dropped from a positive 0.7%到2%.同期下降了6%.
发现三: 老年消费者的其他服务支出增长也下降得最快
2014年3月至2016年12月期间, the gap in growth on other services spending between consumers under 35 and consumers 55 and older increased from 10.6个百分点降至13%.8个百分点. The other services product type captures a broad array of products; like restaurant spending, older consumers account for a larger proportion of spending on other services than their younger counterparts. 2016年12月，35岁以下的消费者仅占20%.6%的支出用于其他服务. 35岁至54岁的消费者和55岁及以上的消费者占40%.4和39.分别为0%. We find that the largest decline in spending growth from older consumers within other services came from transportation (e.g. 地铁和公共汽车)和汽车(e.g. 汽车修理和机油更换)服务.4
发现四: 支出 on transportation and automotive services had the greatest declines on other services spending among older consumers
The shifts in behavior among older consumers have significance at both the local and national levels. 特别是, these changes have implications for decision makers that monitor and analyze changes in the economic climate and tax bases of major urban centers. JPMC data offers an unprecedented and nuanced view of activity that can inform economic analysis and forecasting for policymakers as the demographic characteristics of the population evolve over time.
建议引用 法瑞尔，戴安娜和布莱恩·金. “老年人导致了当地消费商业的放缓.12bet官方研究所，2017年.
2.As of June 2017, there are 15 LCC cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas-Ft. 价值, 丹佛, 底特律, 休斯顿, 迈阿密, 洛杉矶, 纽约, 凤凰城, 波特兰(或), 圣地亚哥, 旧金山, 和西雅图.
3.请注意，本文中所有的增长率都反映了3个月的滚动平均值. 我们对这些序列进行了平滑处理，以突出长期趋势.
4.Demand for transportation services is partially driven by the need for consumers to travel between their residence and the location of the merchants at which they shop. The 研究所 has studied how these distances change over time in our brief titled 走得更远:零售渠道的大数据.